Three months before the EU elections, projections show the European People’s Party (EPP) leading with 181 seats, followed by S&D with 140, and RE with 82. The informal coalition of these parties secures an absolute majority in the Parliament. ID gains one seat, reaching 92, while ECR gains three, totaling 83. G/EFA drops to 49 seats, and Left gains three, totaling 45. NI decreases by five to 44, and unaffiliated parties are expected to have four seats.
The election is expected to see a massive surge in support for the far right, driven by European public dissatisfaction with the recent wave of illegal immigration. In an attempt to meet this challenge, mainstream parties and European political elites seem to be settling on a twofold strategy. First, they are trying to neutralize migration as a political issue by imitating right-wing policies. The European Union’s new migration pact, adopted in December, is a clear example of this strategy, as it is France’s recent migration law, which was largely drafted by the right and the far right. Second, European elites hope to change the narrative in their favor by promoting a
The election is expected to see a massive surge in support for the far right, driven by European public dissatisfaction with the recent wave of illegal immigration. In an attempt to meet this challenge, mainstream parties and European political elites seem to be settling on a twofold strategy. First, they are trying to neutralize migration as a political issue by imitating right-wing policies. The European Union’s new migration pact, adopted in December, is a clear example of this strategy, as it is France’s recent migration law, which was largely drafted by the right and the far right. Second, European elites hope to change the narrative in their favor by promoting a vision of European success centered on the EU’s response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the climate crisis, and the Covid pandemic.
But some recent surveys in 12 EU countries that account for three-quarters of the seats in the European Parliament – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden – show that both strategies are likely to backfire. While the former risks to overemphasizing the role of migration policy, the latter could end up inadvertently mobilizing voters for anti-European parties by highlighting precisely those issues where public opinion tends to align with the right.