HAIZUM’S EU ELECTION OUTLOOK

21/05/2024

HAIZUM’S EU ELECTION OUTLOOK

As the European political landscape undergoes continuous transformation, it is crucial to remain at the forefront of these developments, grasping the subtleties and ramifications of forthcoming elections. We are excited to present our Haizum Dispatch from Brussels, with focus on EU Elections, meticulously designed to deliver in-depth insights into the complexities of the European political sphere.

This week we particularly focus on:

Latest on EU Election

European Group Manifestos Comparative Analysis

European Election: latest

The 2024 European elections, set to take place from June 6 to June 9, will have EU citizens elect 720 members to the European Parliament. This is an increase from the previous 705 seats, reflecting demographic changes in several member states.

Projections for these elections suggest that far-right and right-wing populist parties are poised to make substantial gains. Polls indicate that these parties could become a dominant force in the European Parliament, posing potential challenges to key EU policies on climate change and support for Ukraine.

The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are projected to gain considerable seats. The ID group, which includes Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Matteo Salvini’s Lega, could see an increase from 59 to around 85 seats. ECR, buoyed by the success of Fratelli d’Italia and other right-wing parties in Poland and Spain, is also expected to perform strongly.

Despite the potential gains, there are significant ideological differences among far-right parties, particularly on issues like the war in Ukraine and European integration, which could hinder their ability to form a cohesive bloc. However, their increased presence may still influence European policies, especially on migration and EU integration.

The expected rise of the far-right could lead to a decline in support for traditional centrist and left-wing parties. The current informal coalition between the center-right EPP, center-left S&D, and centrist-liberal RE might retain a majority, but with reduced influence. This shift could result in more contentious policy-making processes within the EU Parliament.

These elections are seen as a critical moment that could reshape the political landscape of the European Union, potentially amplifying nationalist, and Eurosceptic voices across the continent.

May 2024 EU Election Forecast

European Group Manifestos Comparative Analysis

EPP: Our Europe, a safe and good home for the people

S&D: The Europe we want – social, democratic, sustainable

ALDE: Your Europe, your freedom – delivering change for you

The Left: Our Moment!

The Greens: Courage to change

EFA: A Europe for all

ECR: Do less, do better

ECPM: Elevate, Empower, Engage

EDP: Europe stand up!

This summary highlights the key differences and priorities among the major political groups ahead of the 2024 EU elections.

1. Sustainability and Environment

EPP: Focuses on energy market integration, common resource strategy, supply diversification, climate neutrality by 2050, and supporting farmers and fishers
S&D: Promotes a Green and Social Deal for a just transition aimed at a carbon-free circular economy, promoting SDGs and sustainable agriculture
ALDE: Reforming the Common Agriculture Policy to reduce agricultural bureaucracy
The Left: Addressing climate crisis through societal transformation, public ownership of essential services, European Green Deal with greater focus on sustainability, support sustainable farming
The Greens: Green and Social Deal, eliminate toxic air pollution, end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, establishment of a European Natural Disaster Fund, Energy Guarantee to provide all households with affordable energy, European Climate Ticket framework for affordable public transport
EFA: Reform Green Deal’s into less centralized approach, reform for SMEs, rural areas, and sustainable farming regulations, recognize landscapes as EU cultural heritage, expand renewable energy projects with local community harmony and regional flexibility
ECR: Sustainable measures to address climate change, improving food quality and food security, ensuring clean air in the EU, protecting wildlife, fishermen and the seas
ECPM: Environmental sustainability within economic innovation
EDP: Set a price on greenhouse gas emissions, expand financial transaction taxes for global emission reduction, and create a Common Energy policy while prioritizing biodiversity by banning toxic chemicals, develop a sustainable agriculture and fisheries.

2. Social and Employment Policies

EPP: Advocates for equality, workers’ rights, collective bargaining, alleviating child poverty, combating violence against women, and reforming the EU enlargement criteria, while ensuring the preservation of national identities
S&D: Focuses on creation for high quality green jobs, tax justice, tackling homelessness, improving public services, ensuring collective bargaining for all jobs, and ensuring EU economic open and strong position
ALDE: Legalizing same sex marriage, ensuring access to safe sexual health
The Left: Implementing universal healthcare, improving pensions, unemployment insurance, affordable housing, and feminism
The Greens: European Health Union ensuring universal healthcare, ensuring access to affordable housing and public transports, healthy food and clean water, accessible and quality education
EFA: N/A
ECR: N/A
ECPM: Opposition abortion/euthanasia, advocating for parents’ right to educate their children and decide the subjects taught in schools, tackling modern slavery, i.e. criminalization of buyers of sex services and traffickers
EDP: Specific treaty on Social Europe, implementation of convergence strategies for working conditions, wages, social protection and gender equity.

3. EU Values and Democracy:

EPP: End unanimity in EU sanctions, defend the single market, replace the High Representative with an EU foreign minister, support Cyprus reunification talks, preserve European, regional, and national identities, cultural heritage, Christian values, and EU principles, while upholding the rule of law and fighting discrimination
S&D: Supports democracy, rule of law, and the role of civil society. Deploying clear rules and sanctions for funding of governments, Ensuring equal rights in the EU
ALDE: Inviting candidate countries to participate in the next EU elections as observers, reforming the EU elections and EU treaties
The Left: European anti-fascist center, European Day to combat fascism, democratic re-founding of the EU, ensuring ecological sustainability, social cohesion, and democratic participation, new EU treaty that empowers the European Parliament and respects national sovereignty
The Greens: Counter the far-right’s scapegoating minorities and half-truths that undermine rights, democracy and threaten the rule of law
EFA: Democratic right to self- determination, right to initiate legislation to the European Parliament, reforms to strengthen the influence of the European Committee of the Regions, improving the European Citizens’ Initiative, Involving youth in the decision-making process of the EU, increasing the number of languages spoken in the European Parliament, nominating a European Ombudsman for Minority Rights and tackling under-representation of women in the Parliament
ECR: Closely monitoring the EU budget, ending the monthly sessions in Strasbourg
ECPM: Reducing bureaucracy, eliminating redundant agencies, and supporting the confederal model for the EU
EDP: Strengthening democracy, establishing transnational lists in the European Parliament, enhance participatory democracy.

4. Economic Growth and Digitalization:

EPP: Streamlined regulation, common industrial policy, investment, a trade policy based on reciprocity, integrated energy markets, supply diversification, socially and economically coherent green industry, minimizing regional gaps through support of rural areas, increasing digitalization and human- centered AI
S&D: Supports a just transition into carbon-free economy with new jobs, social justice, tax reforms and affordable public services, robust Cohesion Policy
ALDE: Promotes economic growth through simplified access to EU funds and energy-saving initiatives, digital transformation, reforming Common Agriculture Policy
The Left: Replacing the Stability and Growth Pact with a new pact focused on social and environmental issues, permanent EU mechanism to reduce inequalities, new taxes on wealth and energy sector profits, changing ECB policy to support ecological transformation, combating tax evasion, creating a European Fund for social housing and public services, supporting multilateralism, employment, welfare, and gender equality over single-market principles
The Greens: Revise Maastricht Criteria and Stability and Growth Pact limits, well-being-based macroeconomic governance, investment in public goods and green transition, revise state aid and public investment rules to encourage green investments, update European Central Bank’s mandate to include full employment alongside price stability
EFA: Improve supply chains, distribute EU funds based on regional needs, establish economic and cultural regions, diversify EU trade and combat market dumping, ease conditions for industries and SMEs, introduce an EU competitiveness check
ECR: reduce barriers in the Single Market, easier product sales in the EU, protect consumer rights, improve transport infrastructure, remove bureaucratic barriers, open trade, limit the European Stability Mechanism’s enforcement to share liability
ECPM: Reject privatization of public services, SME development, free trade and open markets with sustainability checks, EU self-sufficiency, balance government-funded and private R&D efforts
EDP: Involve key Euro area countries to set economic, fiscal, social, and labor targets, interparliamentary finance committee for democratic control, allocate at least 120 billion euros to Horizon Europe, increase research and innovation funding from Structural Funds, new program to support the digital economy and AI.

5. Security and International Cooperation:

EPP: Increase support for Ukraine, including future EU and NATO membership, strengthen defense policy with an expanded NATO, invest in the EU’s defense industry, establish a Commissioner for Security and Defence, integrate land, sea, cyber, and air forces, create a defense single market, control EU borders with electronic monitoring and reinforce Frontex, asylum seekers protection and annual humanitarian quotas, Preparedness Union for crises, smart trade policy and international cooperation
S&D: Security across the EU, common and coordinated system for migration and asylum based on solidarity, shared responsibility, human rights and dignity, European Common Security and Defence Policy and European defence industry, international cooperation and new partnerships, supporting ILO, ambitious and fair EU trade agenda
ALDE: Solidarity with Ukrainians, improve EU defense and economic security, European Defence Union, EU military-industrial capabilities and a defense investment plan, strengthen ties with the UK and prepare for EU enlargement, MERCOSUR, achieve a trans-Atlantic free trade agreement, and reform the WTO and the Common European Asylum System and Frontex, launch European Action Plan for Mediterranean search
The Left: Condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’ attack on Israel, and the Israeli war in Gaza; sanctions against the Russian, American, and Israeli military industries; Calling for rejecting war, promoting peace, creating a nuclear-free Europe and reducing military spending; Advocating for global cooperation
The Greens: Human rights, especially with regard to migration, multilateralism and a value-based foreign policy based solidarity, cooperation and democracy, Security Union centered on human security
EFA: Supporting the autonomy or independence of certain EU territories, stronger EU role in supporting the peoples of Palestine, Kurdistan, Western Sahara, and Ukraine, including aid for displaced Ukrainians and a robust diplomatic stance against Russia; EU’s enlargement to include Ukraine, the Western Balkans, and Moldova
ECR: Strengthening of internal and external security of the EU; migration system which supports Member States, protects the EU external borders, increases the rate of return of migrants and combats abuses to the EU’s asylum system; strengthening of Frontex, protection of victims of terrorism; international cooperation policy which focuses on private enterprise to help reduce poverty and on building strong economies and industries; issue of persecution of Christians in the world
ECPM: Foreign affairs approach that prioritizes human dignity and rights, urging Member States to handle their own policies while advocating for NATO cooperation, respecting neutrality, and seeking an end to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine; solidarity on migration, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, and proposing evaluating foreign aid to ensure it supports countries upholding human rights
EDP: Unified European foreign policy with focus on engaging allies, managing relations with Russia and Turkey, and supporting initiatives for resolving issues in Cyprus and stabilizing the Western Balkans; strengthening of EU defence capabilities, enhancing cybersecurity, countering terrorism in rights-compliant ways, and managing migration by addressing its root causes; Involving citizens in trade agreements to boost transparency and prioritize environmental concerns.