November 2025 The Haizum Italian Insider Report is a monthly news service that monitors the most relevant issues in Italy. This document focuses on political, Economic, and Strategic matters, considering the role of Italy within the European Union, the MENA region, and Transatlantic Relations. The report will deliver clever insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep connections in the national institutional ecosystem. READING TIME: 15 MINUTES Disclaimer: This Report is proprietary and confidential and may not be copied, quoted, referenced, or distributed in any format without the express written approval of Haizum Strategic Government Affairs (“Haizum”). Any violation of the foregoing may result in material harm to Haizum. The views expressed reflect public information or the personal views of the members of Haizum’s Team and in case reflect the view in a general context as expressed in the newsletter and may not represent a view on a specific case. Views expressed are as of the date hereof and Haizum does not undertake to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Opinions or statements regarding financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed that Haizum has made or will make investment recommendations now or in the future irrespective of the views expressed herein. Haizum does make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this newsletter and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation whether as to the past or future performance. Certain factual pieces of information contained herein have been obtained from third-party sources. It has not been independently verified by Haizum and although Haizum believes it to be reliable, Haizum makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. This Newsletter is intended solely for informational purposes. It is not investment advice and should not be considered to be a recommendation to buy or sell any type of securities or investments or as an indication that any security is suitable for a particular person. Haizum also may have potential conflicts of interest, including that some of Haizum’s officers, directors, and/or employees may be investors in the securities directly or indirectly. No assurance can be given that any risk management framework described herein will achieve its objective. SUMMARY Italy’s political and economic landscape in November 2025 was defined by steady governance, fiscal prudence, and strategic initiatives at home and abroad. The Meloni government navigated the finalization of its 2026 Budget, forging coalition compromises on key measures, while upholding a disciplined deficit target. This approach earned endorsement from Brussels, where the EU Commission deemed Italy’s budget compliant with EU fiscal rules, and culminated in a historic agreement with the EU to recalibrate Italy’s post-pandemic recovery plan. Parliament’s passage of a landmark justice reform in October set the stage for an upcoming confirmatory referendum on separating judicial careers, while President Sergio Mattarella urged urging unity and constitutional fidelity. Strategically, Italy bolstered its defence posture and alliances. The government advanced plans to expand military readiness even as NATO partners noted Italy’s need to boost defence spending. Italian diplomacy was highly visible: Rome hosted a first-ever intergovernmental summit with Albania, yielding 16 agreements to deepen cooperation. In European fora, Italy pushed for faster returns processes and a common “safe countries” list to curb irregular flows, while insisting that offshore migrant centers become a pillar of EU strategy. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani balanced Italy’s staunch support for Israel’s security with calls for an urgent humanitarian truce in Gaza. Economically, Italy’s prudent policies continued to bear fruit. Key rating agencies had upgraded Italy earlier in 2025, and in November the 10-year bond spread over Germany tightened to its lowest level in years reflecting investor confidence. Growth remained modest with inflation trending near 3.5%, but the government’s mix of tax cuts, investment incentives, and EU-funded projects underpinned hopes of a gradual upswing. Italy’s major strategic companies, from energy giants to banks, railways, insurers, and defence contractors, reported robust results and pursued international partnerships in line with government priorities, reinforcing the country’s economic resilience. INSTITUTIONS GOVERNMENT The government ended November by pushing the Budget Law for 2026 through parliamentary scrutiny. To overcome coalition disputes over the €18 billion package, Prime Minister Meloni met majority leaders and secured compromises on short-term rental rules, an expanded first-home tax exemption for (ISEE) families, and revised dividend taxation. To fund additional measures, the coalition approved a supplemental bank levy on large lenders and small “package delivery” fee. After the finance committee removed more than 100 inadmissible amendments, the budget advanced toward a mid-December Senate vote. Meloni praised it as “serious and balanced”, emphasizing support for middle-class households, businesses and hiring incentives, and stronger healthcare, while keeping the deficit below 3%. Italy’s credibility in Brussels was also reinforced. On November 25, the European Commission confirmed that the draft budget 2026 complies with EU fiscal rules, staying within the net spending growth limits and avoiding an excessive-deficit procedure. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti welcome the approval as evidence of Italy’s prudent course. Alongside the budget, Rome secured a major success on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). On November 27, the EU Council approved Italy’s revised plan, preserving the full €194.4 billion allocation and reallocating €13.5 billion toward more feasible and strategic projects. EU Commission Vice-President Raffaele Fitto called the outcome “an important step”, while Meloni said it confirms the government’s credible management of the PNRR. The decision unlocks Italy’s eighth tranche of NextGenEU funds, €12.8 billion, bringing total disbursements to €153 billion. Domestically, Meloni presented the outcome as evidence of Italy’s stronger position in Europe. Meanwhile, tensions rose with the judiciary after the Court of Auditors suspended the Messing Bridge project. Meloni denounced the move as “intolerable interference”, and ministers hinted at legal or legislative measures to curb what they view as a technocratic overreach. Meloni stressed that structural reforms, including administrative and judicial reforms, must accompany investment, to secure long-term growth. Judiciary
Dispatch from Washington: November 2025
November 2025 The Haizum Washington Dispatch is a monthly intelligence briefing that monitors the most relevant political, economic, regulatory, and strategic developments in the United States. This document focuses on federal policymaking, national security, trade, technology, and macroeconomic dynamics, considering the role of Washington within transatlantic relations, Indo-Pacific strategy, and global geopolitical competition. The report delivers high-level insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep network across the US institutional, policy, and strategic affairs ecosystem. READING TIME: 15 MINUTES This newsletter was prepared for Haizum Strategic Government Affairs. Haizum maintains exclusive rights to circulate this product. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained herein are the sole responsibility of the author. This newsletter was produced on Monday, November 24. Developments after that date will be covered in the next issue. SUMMARY The historic 43-day government shutdown finally came to an end when President Donald Trump signed a funding bill crafted by Senate negotiators. However, the relief may be short-lived, as Congress faces another funding deadline in late January. Meanwhile, Democrats delivered a strong performance in this year’s off-year elections, capturing key governorships in Virginia and New Jersey and positioning themselves advantageously ahead of the 2026 midterms. There are redistricting efforts in a number of states shaking up the electoral map ahead of the midterms. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer take to Brussels for high-stakes trade talks. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court has taken up a landmark case challenging the legality of Trump-era tariffs, a decision that could significantly redefine the balance of power between Congress and the presidency in trade matters. Abroad, President Trump’s recent Asia tour yielded major diplomatic and economic agreements across Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, while his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced tentative progress toward easing trade tensions and expanding market access. Back home, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, signaling concern over slowing growth and persistent inflation even as policymakers debate how far to go with future easing. President Trump has begun dismantling the US Department of Education, following up on his March executive order to close the department. Longest U.S. Government Shutdown in History Ends, But Future Fights Loom Large The historic 43-day shutdown of the U.S. federal government finally came to an end on November 12, when President Donald Trump signed a funding measure crafted by Senate negotiators. The deal emerged after a 222–209 vote in the House, in which six Democrats joined Republicans to approve the measure. Under the agreement, most federal agencies are funded through January 30, 2026, while three appropriations bills, covering the Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs and the legislative branch, were funded for the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2026. In addition, the legislation reversed the more than 4,000 layoffs initiated during the shutdown and barred further reductions in force until the end of January. Food-assistance programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were resumed, benefiting millions of low-income Americans. Despite the relief of reopening, the shutdown left significant damage: airline travel was disrupted, pay for federal workers was delayed, and food assistance programs were suspended or delayed. Politically, neither side emerged with a clear victory: polls indicate that roughly half of Americans blame Republicans for the impasse, and nearly as many blame Democrats. While the immediate crisis has ended, Congressional observers are already bracing for another potential funding shutdown in January. The deal’s January 30 funding expiration sets up a tight deadline for the remainder of the fiscal 2026 appropriations process. Moreover, key conflicts remain unresolved, most notably the extension of enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which many Democrats demanded in the shutdown negotiations, but which Republicans refused to guarantee in the reopening deal. With the appropriations of clock ticking, lawmakers could again resort to short‐term funding measures or risk another shutdown if partisan gridlock returns. Stay tuned to see how this unfolds. Democrats Dominate Off-Year Elections The 2025 off-year elections delivered a strong showing for the Democratic Party. In both Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats captured gubernatorial races and strengthened legislative control. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Virginia added seats in the House of Delegates, ending the state’s divided government, while in New Jersey, the party maintained its trifecta of control over state government. Meanwhile, in California, voters passed Proposition 50, authorizing new congressional district maps that are expected to favor Democrats. Post-election commentary from The Brookings Institution, a think tank, highlighted several trends: stronger turnout, especially among younger voters, and issues of affordability emerging as salient campaign themes. The Politico analysis described the results as reminiscent of the run-up to the 2018 midterms, noting that Democrats improved their appeal even in suburban and non-college-educated voter segments. Notably, ballot-measure and judicial races also reflected shifts: as Brookings notes, in Pennsylvania, three Democratic justices up for retention won comfortably, strengthening the party’s posture in key state courts. The 2025 results could serve as an early indicator of momentum heading into the 2026 mid-term elections. The passage of Proposition 50 may give Democrats as many as five additional seats in the House. Meanwhile, the strong margins in Virginia and New Jersey may signal voter fatigue with the party in power at the national level and reflect a responsiveness to issues such as the cost of living and economic stability. Yet analysts cautioned that off-year elections do not always translate into predictable mid-term outcomes; the mix of local dynamics, turnout, and redistricting will be critical. In short, while the Democratic Party appears to have established some advantageous positioning with favorable maps and successful messaging in 2025, the broader 2026 midterms will likely hinge on how national economic conditions, turnout patterns, and district-level competition unfold. The Midterm Map Fights The fight over how congressional districts are drawn is heating up ahead of the 2026 midterms. As many states move beyond the usual post-census redistricting cycle, new maps, and legal challenges to them, are reshaping the terrain for both parties. At
